Unfolding the potential of climate services for climate change adaptation

11:15 Tuesday 28 May


Room S5


Jaroslav Mysiak (Italy) 1; Stefano Bagli (Italy) 2; Elisa Delpiazzo (Italy) 1; Ghislain Dubois (France) 3; Isadora Jimenez (Spain) 4; Adriaan Perrels (Finland) 5; Marta Bruno Soares (United Kingdom) 6; Alberto Troccoli (United Kingdom) 7; Giulio Zuccaro (Italy) 8; Filip Lefebre (Belgium) 9

1 - Euro-Mediterranean Centre on Climate Change and Ca' Foscari University Venice; 2 - GECOsistema srl; 3 - Tec Conseil; 4 - Barcelona Supercomputing Center; 5 - Finnish Meteorological Institute; 6 - University of Leeds; 7 - University of East Anglia; 8 - Università di Napoli Federico II; 9 - Vito

Climate variability and change pose sizeable economic, social and environmental risks. Climate services (CSs) catalyse economic and societal transformations that not only reduce these risks and/or improve societal resilience, but also unlock Europe’s innovation potential, competitiveness and economic growth. Over the past several years, climate services have grown in numbers, quality and sophistication, stimulated not at least by the EU Research programmes (FP7 and H2020), Copernicus Climate Change Services (C3S), and the World Meteorological Organisation’s Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS). The European Union made sizeable investments in frontline systems enabling modern meteorological services as a contribution to the Europe 2020 strategy for smart, sustainable and inclusive growth.

As a part of European efforts to catalyse the potential of climate services for more efficient natural resource management and improved disaster risk management and resilience, the development of climate services has been promoted through H2020 Research programme.Climate services hold promise for better informed and evidence-based management of climate risks, i.e. better adaptation and disaster risk reduction. To live up to these expectations, climate services need to be based on thorough understanding of and respond to the needs and requirements of decision and policy makers who cope with and adapt to climate variability and change. The most successful climate services are those that have been co-designed and co-developed with the intended users, galvanising mutually beneficial learning. business viability of climate services is boosted by making explicit the value or benefits drawn from their use. This is not an easy task and no single, one-size-fits-all methodology exists to reveal the value of the information embedded in climate services.In this session we will summarise the results and expected impacts of the frontline climate services developed in the context of more than ten H2020 funded research and innovation projects. It also sets out to summarise the insights gained and identify good practice examples for co-development and co-assessment of climate services, formulation of viable business and marketing strategies, and communication of uncertainty and risk.

Target audience

This session is meant for experts and practitioners, researchers and climate innovators, as well as policy makers at various governance levels. The session will offer a concise overview of the available and envisaged climate services, their performance and strategies adopted to boost their deployment. Developers and purveyors of climate services will learn about the bottlenecks of and good practices for development of climate services. Funders and policy makers will get insights about ways to boost uptake of climate knowledge for adaptation decision making. Users will learn about why it may be beneficial for them to use climate services in the context of climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction Proposed format for the session The session is organised as a series of audience-engaging, interactive talks summarising the recent experience from H2020 projects developing climate services for strategic and operational decision making processes. The talks have been designed to offer an overview of the cutting-edge climate services developed under Horizon 2020 and ERA4CS. The topics cover also the most prominent issues faced when designing climate services and range from co-development, co-assessment and communication of uncertainty and risk, to market survey and analysis. The panel presentations will stimulate the discussion and exchange, and facilitate a shared understanding of the potential provided by the climate services. Ample time will be left for plenary and panel discussion. Contributing Authors abstracts

1. Climate services for climate-resilient water resource management and adaptation in winter tourism sectors

Dubois Ghislain (a), Fred Hattermann (b), Christiana Photiadou (c), María-José Polo (d), and Alberto Troccoli (e)

(a) Tec Conseil, (b) Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, (c) Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, (d) University of Cordoba, Spain, (e) University of East Anglia.

Climate change affects the amount, form, and timing of precipitation, and in doing so alters the spatio-temporal patterns of water availability and risks. Many climate services have been developed to factor in these changes and advice resource and risk management choices. We provide an overview of the most recently developed services. The PROSNOW project for example is building a demonstrator of seamless sub-seasonal to seasonal snow prediction system specifically tailored for the ski industry. The Copernicus for European Tourism (CET) sectoral information system assesses a long term availability of snow and snow making capacity in European mountains. The CLARA and AQUACLEW projects assess water resource availability and river flow, using climate projection and seasonal forecasts, to foster efficient multi-objective reservoir management. H2020-Insurance has developed a multi-hazard, multi-risk, hydrological model for Europe. The model predicts seasonal variation of flood and drought and compares historical and climate change scenarios for the future, as well as calculates the range of physical and financial damage for areas impacted by flood. The model is being tested by both insurance companies and local authority stakeholders in the Danube River Basin and predicts river flooding in winter and drought risk in summer.

2. Implementing European Climate Services for the Energy Sector: assessing the value they bring

Alberto Troccoli (a), Dubois Ghislain (b), Clare Goodess (a), Isadora Jimenez (c), María-José Polo (d), Athanasios Votsis (e)

(a) University of East Anglia, (b) TEC Conseil, (c) Barcelona Supercomputing Center, (d) University of Cordoba, (e) Finnish Meteorological Institute

A number of EU H2020 projects – SECLI-FIRM, S2S4E, CLARA, PROSNOW, DustClim – are using the latest climate science, and the related seasonal climate forecasts and climate projections, to understand and, critically, anticipate the adverse impact of severe climate events for energy planning and operations. The link between climate and energy is very clear for renewable sources such as wind, solar and hydropower and for electrical transmission systems. While it is less obvious for more traditional energy sources they can nonetheless be severely impacted by extreme climatic events (e.g. heat waves for thermal power plant production). In addition, energy demand also varies strongly with meteorological conditions. Climate information, such as seasonal climate forecasts, is still seen as highly uncertain and with a low accuracy. While this may be true in an average sense, these EU projects are considering a number of case studies which address different aspects of the energy sector as well as different geographies, in order to try to understand how value can be extracted from climate information so that confidence can be built for energy companies to operationally adopt the use of this information. It is important to stress that the case studies are conducted in close engagement with industry stakeholders, who are taking an active role in quantifying the value of climate information.

3. Innovative climate services for agriculture and irrigation

Stefano Bagli (a), Alessandro Dell’Aquila (b), Christoph Gornott (c)

(a) GECOsistema srl, (b) Italian National Agency for New Technologies, Energy and Sustainable Economic Development, (c) Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

EU Common Agricultural Policy recognises Climate change threats to farmers, agricultural productivity, and sustainable management of natural resources, and aims at providing a stable supply of quality affordable food, maintaining rural areas and landscapes, and keeping the rural economy alive. Efficient use of water resources is part of this ambitious goals, that can be reached by promoting use of comprehensive management tools and robust, cross-disciplinary methods for irrigation scheduling and multi-objective crop yield optimization. Increasing availability of large volume of open data from earth observation, climate projections and forecast, soil modelling tools, statistical/econometric and crop growth models, coupled with data-driven methods (e.g. AI, machine learning) set the grounds for innovative strategies and services to promote climate proof irrigation. Adoption of efficient agri-practices in land and water use increases agriculture ecological sustainability, productivity and quality of agri-products. The goal of this topics is to present innovative and operative climate services for agriculture and irrigation, to support an heterogeneous range of stakeholders (from single farmers to water/irrigation managers), in quantifying crop harvesting damages and evaluating the benefits associated with the implementation of specific agri-climate mitigation measures. Climate science is also being used to create evidence based systems to help insurers ability to create insurance products for farmers and small holders in the developing world.

4. Climate services for climate risk management and urban adaptation

Giulio Zuccaro (a), Mattia Leone (a), Jaroslav Mysiak (b), Filip Lefebre (c), Athanasios Votsis (d), Reija Ruuhela (d) Christian Witt (e)

(a) Universitö di Napoli Federico II, (b) Euro-Mediterranean Centre on Climate Change and Ca’ Foscari University, (c) Flemish Institute for Technological Research, (d) Finnish Meteorological Institute, (e) Charité – Universitätsmedizin Berlin

Climate Services are emerging worldwide as an essential tool to bridge the advancement in climate science and earth observations with a variety of operational fields in the domains of disaster risk reduction (DRR) and climate change adaptation (CCA). There is a growing need to harmonize risk and impact assessment modelling methodologies in order to increase the potential for use of scientific results by decision-makers to streamline national to local DRR and CCA policies. An integrated modelling approach should provide a detailed impact quantification on selected elements at risk (e.g. population, buildings, transport infrastructure, economic sectors, etc.) under the effect of extreme weather events in context of climate change, based on high resolution climate projections and analyses.A large share of global climate risk is concentrated in urban areas. Cities are vulnerable to the impacts of climate change because of the high density of people, built infrastructure, and economic activity, but also because urban areas shape their own climate, amplifying climate extremes such as excessive heat and flooding. Sustainable urban and health planning can offer solutions, and it is important to understand, how physical and socioeconomic processes co-determine the exposure and vulnerability of populations, economy, and infrastructure to the impacts of climate extremes.

5. Participatory approaches to support the co-development of climate services in Europe: experiences and lessons across European sectors

Marta Bruno Soares (a), Elisa Calliari (b), Sebastien Bruyere (c), Clare Goodess (d), Denis Havlik (e), Tracy Irvine (f), Isadora Jimenez (g), Mattia Leone (h), Elena Mihailescu (a), Josep Maria Solé (i), Marta Terrado (g), Alberto Troccoli (d), Nele Veldeman (j)

(a) University of Leeds, (b) University College London and Euro-Mediterranean Centre on Climate Change, (c) TEC Conseil, (d) University of East Anglia, (e) Austrian Institute of Technology GmbH, (f) Oasis Hub Ltd, (g) Barcelona Supercomputing Center, (h) Universitö di Napoli Federico II, (i) Meteosim SL, (j) Vito – Vlaamse Instelling voor Technologisch Onderzoek n.v

The uptake and use of climate information in Europe to support decision-making processes is still fairly limited. This is often due to the discrepancy between the existing (but limited) knowledge on the users’ requirements regarding climate information and the variety and complexity of the currently services offered. The development of tailored and usable climate services that are relevant to the users’ specific decision-making context can help facilitate the uptake and use of climate information. Such efforts, underpinned by the close engagement with different stakeholders, requires the adoption and implementation of participatory approaches that allow such co-development processes to take place. However, such processes often raise a number of challenges – e.g. operational, technical, methodological – that demand the implementation of a number of participatory approaches to address and manage those involved in order to achieve successful climate services. This presentation will bring together experiences and lessons learned across a number of European projects (MED-GOLD, CLARA, S2S4E, H2020_Insurance, VISCA, CLIMATE-FIT, SECLI-FIRM, PROSNOW, CLARITY) and sectors such as agriculture, energy, water, urban infrastructure and tourism in order to provide insights on best practices for future co-development of climate services across European sectors.

6. Assessing the value created through deploying climate services

Elisa Delpiazzo (a), Francesco Bosello (a), Clare Goodess (b), Isadora Jimenez (c), Jaroslav Mysiak (a), Alberto Troccoli (b), Nele Veldeman (d), Ilaria Vigo (c)

(a) Euro-Mediterranean Centre on Climate Change and University Ca’ Foscari, (b) University of East Anglia, and World Energy and Meteorology Council, (c) Barcelona Supercomputing Center, (d) Vito – Vlaamse Instelling voor Technologisch Onderzoek n.v.

A coherent understanding of the economic and social value of climate services benefits both their generation and their dissemination processes. It is critical that climate service providers have a clear understanding of the economic value associated to their products to modify and tailor them to maximize the final users’ gains from their adoption, ultimately leading to an increased likelihood of adoption and use of these services (not only for a private actor but also for public authorities). This feedback loop strengthens the collaboration between developers and users and helps the evolution of the climate services over time. The role of the economic evaluation of climate services is important both in developing and developed countries. While in developing countries, it should overcome a lack of awareness of the opportunities and benefits of climate services, create and manage local weather and climate services, in developed countries it is a fundamental step towards the establishment of a market. Moreover, valuing climate service has a relevant role also for public bodies; it helps national governments prioritizing and better managing the impacts of weather and climate across economic sectors and allocating scarce public funding for mainstreaming climate services in public policies.

7. Market development and business models for climate services

Adriaan Perrels (a), Francesca Larosa (b), Tracy Irvine (c), Jaroslav Mysiak (b)(a) Finnish Meteorological Institute, (b) Euro-Mediterranean Centre on Climate Change and University Ca’ Foscari, (c) Oasis Hub Ltd

Despite a growing supply and diversity of climate services the uptake of these services is still hesitant in some sectors. There are both structural and practical reasons why demand unfolds less vigorously than climate experts tend to expect. This presentation will highlight the structural and practical level factors affecting the market development. It will also discuss policies and measures to resolve obstacles and enhance uptake. Special attention will be given to relaxation of the separation of public and private actors, rigour in open data policy, business model alternatives for public providers, standardization of products and attributes, user relevant quality standards, role of (mandatory) risk transparency, elicitation through demonstrating benefits of climate services, accessibility and charging, as well as to innovation. We will also illustrate how market prospects could vary under different technical-economic-political ‘regimes’.

The session will provide an overview of the current market status, the need to educate new markets in the type, availability and uses of climate services, and will provide learnings from an early mover in this sector (Oasis Hub www.oasishub.co).

8. Visualisation and communication of uncertainty and risk

Isadora Christel-Jiménez (a), Dubois Ghislain (b), Jaroslav Mysiak (c), Josep Maria Solé (d)(a) Barcelona Supercomputing Center, (b) TEC Conseil, (c) Euro-Mediterranean Centre on Climate Change and University Ca’ Foscari, (d) Meteosim SL

Climate services have the challenge to communicate and present complex scientific information to decision makers in industry. Displaying probabilistic information and forecast uncertainty can lead to complex visualizations, but users, even the technical ones, want to spend time analysing the data and not learning how to use a tool or a service. A successful climate service entails a balance between scientific exhaustiveness and functionality. Depending on the sector targeted by the service (such as renewable energy, agriculture or tourism) and the information needs of decision-makers in that sector, different visualization and communication solutions are needed. Building on the experience and solutions of different climate services projects such as S2S4E, PROSNOW, VISCA or CLARA, we will discuss how data visualization and other communication channels help to spread sub-seasonal and seasonal predictions in energy, tourism and agriculture.