André Vizinho (Portugal) 1; David Avelar (Portugal) 1; Tiago Lourenço (Portugal) 1; Alice Nunes (Portugal) 1; Hugo Oliveira (Portugal) 1; Leonor Sucena Paiva (Portugal) 1; Ana Lúcia Fonseca (Portugal) 1; Silvia Carvalho (Portugal) 1; Cristina Branquinho (Portugal) 1; Filipe Duarte Santos (Portugal) 1; Gil Penha-Lopes (Portugal) 1
1 - CE3C - FCUL
Planning the adaptation of agriculture and forests to climate change is a complex task since decision makers need to combine information on the present state of a landscape with its vulnerability to climate change, which depends also on aspects such as species, soils, topography, agricultural practices, market and adaptative capacity. To evaluate and choose what adaptation measures to use, decision makers need to know what adaptation strategies exist, which are relevant for their system and finally, how effective are these measures in the reduction of the vulnerability.
With the purpose of supporting decision-makers in the adaptation of agriculture and forestry to climate change, this study focuses on: i) creating a framework that organizes and clarifies adaptation strategies on regards to their vulnerability reduction and cause-effect relation; ii) assess and compare the efficacy of the adaptation measures. To do so, we compiled and analyzed the adaptation measures collected by 21 semi-structured interviews, six stakeholder workshops and literature review. Using the Vulnerability Framework in combination with the DPSIR model, we have created an adaptation framework for agriculture and forestry.
A list of indicators’ efficacy was developed and a table of efficacy of adaptation measures was created, compiling a set of quantitative studies through literature review. This framework and indicators of efficacy were tested in the six SWAP workshops supporting the participatory planning of three case studies in the Alentejo region, in the south of Portugal: one municipality and two farms of 221h and 1000ha. The framework was evaluated as successful by participants and decision-makers and implementation is now taking place. Using such a framework provides clarity to the adaptation of agriculture and using indicators of efficacy, supports planners and farmers in choosing between the possible solutions/ investments for the overwhelming challenge of adapting to climate change in the Mediterranean climate region. Further studies should complement the assessment of the efficacy by further developing the literature review or developing studies in fields where quantitative information on efficacy is non-existent.