Sensitivity Analysis of Extreme Rainfall during Summer in Korea against Global Warming

18:00 Tuesday 28 May

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Inkyeong Sim (Korea, Republic of) 1; Jeongeun Won (Korea, Republic of) 1; Okjeong Lee (Korea, Republic of) 1; Jeonghyeon Choi (Korea, Republic of) 1; Kyungmin Kim (Korea, Republic of) 1; Sangdan Kim (Korea, Republic of) 2

1 - Division of Earth Environmental System Science (Major of Environmental Engineering), Pukyong National University; 2 - Department of Environment Engineering, Pukyong National University

Looking at global climate models, it is predicted that future extreme rainfall will increase in many parts of the world. The Clausius-Clapeyron equation provides a physical basis for understanding the sensitivity of rainfall in response to global warming, but the relationship between future rainfall and temperature is still uncertain. In this study, we analyze the sensitivity of extreme rainfall in summer to global warming in Korea. Using the Korea Meteorological Administration’s ASOS data, the relationship between summer rainfall / dew point temperature (DPT) and daily rainfall / surface air temperature (SAT) at 60 stations is analyzed using quantile regression analysis. Quantile regression analysis shows that summer rainfall in Korea is highly correlated with DPT of rainfall day, and the sensitivity of 95% rainfall is about 5% when DPT rises by 1ºC.

The relationship between the daily rainfall and the corresponding daily average SAT shows a negative correlation, but this is considered to be due to the atmospheric cooling effect during rainfall. The correlation between the daily rainfall and the 3-day leading SAT shows a positive correlation. The sensitivity of the 95% extreme rainfall to the SAT 1ºC rise is on the average about 3%. Based on the results of this analysis, the sensitivity of extreme rainfall due to future DPT and SAT increases is analyzed using future data provided in various climate models.

Acknowledgement: This work is supported by the Korea Environmental Industry & Technology Institute (KEITI) grant funded by the Ministry of Environment (RE201901073).