Participatory scenario development and multi-criteria analysis for agricultural adaptation strategies at regional level

16:15 Wednesday 29 May

SS034 • OC203

Room S11


Carlo Giupponi (Italy) 1; Andrea Povellato (Italy) 2; Marco Valentini (Italy) 1

1 - Ca' Foscari Univeristy; 2 - CREA

Preliminary results of a project aimed at supporting the design of regional agricultural and rural development policies towards 2030 will be presented. Considering the possible trajectories of future global changes, downscaled to the regional level (Veneto Region in north-eastern Italy), the forthcoming challenges for adaptation of farming and forestry are analysed with the involvement of experts, public officials and stakeholders for the definition of new policies. A participatory process allowing has been designed and implemented to highlight the options and priorities that the regional government should take into consideration.

In the first step, the Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSP), developed by the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change at global scale, were used in an ad hoc participatory workshop with regional experts and stakeholders to frame the development of local scenarios and explore the possible evolutionary trends of Veneto agriculture.

In the second step, a set of policy options relevant for Veneto Region and the criteria for their assessment in terms of expected performances were identified. The participatory process allows to identify preferred strategies, in a co-design process involving researchers from the main regional universities and the higher staff levels of the regional administration. Five thematic areas of policy options were identified: innovation, competitiveness, sustainability, local development, and forestry and protected areas. Different policy options are assessed through expert knowledge elicitation, by means of Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA). MCA techniques were specifically designed to focus on the exploration of uncertainty deriving from divergent opinions of experts, alternative political orientations, and the various plausible futures (effects of five SSP-based local scenarios).

In the third step, following the initial MCA, a broad on-line consultation will be launched in the end of 2018 to collect feedback and proposals by the most important regional stakeholders. The results of this on-line consultation will be used to produce a revised set of policy options and a series of alternative strategic priorities. The alternative strategies will be used to set up a series of modelling runs to be applied within the already defined assessment framework, and to integrate MCA inputs with quantitative information to complement or substitute the previous expert based qualitative assessment. The final result of this multi-level evaluation procedure will provide policy makers with the information needed to defined the preferred policy mix to face the challenges of development and adaptation in the next decade.