Managing flood risks using the Future Danube Model

16:15 Wednesday 29 May


Room S2


Kai Schröter (Germany) 1; Max Steinhausen (Germany) 1; Michel Wortmann (Germany) 2; Stefan Lüdtke (Germany) 1; Ben Hayes (United Kingdom) 3; Viktor Rözer (Germany) 1; Martin Drews (Denmark) 4; Fred Hattermann (Germany) 2; Heidi Kreibich (Germany) 1

1 - German Research Centre for Geosciences GFZ, Section 54. Hydrology; 2 - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research; 3 - OASIS lmf; 4 - Technical Universtiy of Denmark, Management Engineering

Losses caused by hydro-meteorolocial hazards have been sharply growing globally during the last decades and are expected to increase in the future as a consequence of global change. With changing climate patterns the seasonality, frequency and intensity of extreme hydro-meteorological events is expected to exacerbate socio-economic impacts of flooding. Climate informed planning of adaptation actions needs consistent and reliable information about future risks and associated uncertainties, as well as appropriate tools and services to support comprehensive flood risk assessment and management.

The transient nature of risk drivers requires a more comprehensive view to flood sources, pathways and impacts. In this regard, the consideration of residual risks, i.e. probability of adverse consequences triggered by floods beyond the design level of protection schemes, as well as flood hazard and impacts induced by additional flooding sources, e.g. pluvial flooding, are important aspects.This contribution gives an overview of the Future Danube Model (FDM), which is a multi-hazard and risk model suite for the Danube region. FDM provides climate services related to perils such as heavy precipitation, heat waves, floods and droughts under recent and future climate conditions. It provides spatially consistent information on current and future extreme events and can be used to quantify climate risks.

FDM is composed of exchangeable modules for climate input including a weather generator, hydrology, risk, adaptation and visualisation. The implementation of the FDM is showcased for two applications: i) current and future fluvial flood risk assessment in the German part of the Danube, and ii) current and future fluvial and pluvial flood risk in the city of Budapest. Stochastic inundation event sets (10,000 years of daily climate data) are generated for current and future climate in the Danube region using four EURO-CORDEX models as climate drivers.

Long term continuous simulations of flood processes are conducted using a coupled 1D-2D inundation model for fluvial floods and 2D pluvial flood modeling in cities. Flood losses due to both fluvial and pluvial flooding are estimated using specific probabilistic multi-variable vulnerability models for residential buildings. Effects of adaptation actions are exemplified by scenarios of private precaution. Risk results are given as exceedance probability curves for current and future climate on different spatial aggregation levels enabling an analysis of risk hotspots. The results illustrate the benefits that emerge from considering different flood sources in flood risk management and demonstrate the potential for synergies in implementing precautionary measures.