HazardSupport – risk-based decision support for adaptation to future natural hazards

19:00 Tuesday 28 May




Lena Strömbäck (Sweden) 1; Karin André (Sweden) 2; Jorge Amorim (Sweden) 1; Gustav Strandberg (Sweden) 1; David Segersson (Sweden) 1; Christian Dietrich (Sweden) 1; Linn Jämberg (Sweden) 2

1 - Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute; 2 - Swedish Environmental Institute

In a future climate, extreme weather events are likely to occur more often, increasing the risk of natural hazards. For society to adapt there is a need for quantitative information about the frequency and intensity of these hazards. However, the use of scientific knowledge of climate effects is still limited when planning and implementing adaptation measures, since studies are often designed based on available climate scenarios instead of on the need of decision makers. HazardSupport is a project funded by the Swedish Civil Contingency Agency. The objectives of the work are to design guidelines and methods for these kinds of studies.

In the project, three case studies representing different natural disasters have been designed in collaboration with end- users. The project combines methods for participatory modelling, stakeholder mapping and decision processes to define the needs of the stakeholders with phases where climate experts develop methods and results for the three different use cases.

The first case study concentrates on city planning and its impact on effects from heat waves together with the City of Stockholm. Here, we investigate plausible future scenarios including more or less green infrastructure. The second case study investigates torrential rains and floods in a suburb of Karlstad together with the local municipality. The focus is to investigate how combined threats from cloudbursts and river flooding affects choice of adaption measures. The third use case investigates future risk of coastal flooding in Sweden with the insurance company Länsförsäkringar as a stakeholder.

At the start of the project in 2015 we interviewed stakeholders to understand and define their respectively needs. Based on this information climate data were produced to meet the requirements. During 2018 we held a number meetings and workshops with the stakeholders to understand whether the produced data would meet their needs. Based on this information we will produce refined climate information to comply with users’ needs.

The final goal of the project is to produce guidelines for climate adaptation studies focusing on how stakeholders can obtain the climate information necessary for adaptation decisions, as well as take into account constantly updating and changing climate projection information in their adaptation plans. We will also develop best practice guidelines for climate experts who carry out tailored climate impact studies for stakeholders. In this way we will establish a science-stakeholder arena for collaboration and mutual learning on climate adaptation and natural hazards.