Forecasting biological impacts of climate change for risk assessment in fisheries and aquaculture, the ClimeFish approach

14:00 Wednesday 29 May

SS026 • OC156

Room S10


X. Anton Alvarez-Salgado (Spain) 1; Alan Baudron (United Kingdom) 2; Isabel Fuentes-Santos (Spain) 1; Gergo Gyalog (Hungary) 3; Solfrid S. Hjollo (Norway) 4; Jan Kubeckca (Czech Republic) 5; Dina Lika (Greece) 6; Bruce Mcadam (United Kingdom) 7; Nikos Papandroulakis (Greece) 8; Fabio Pranovi (Italy) 9; Trevor Tefler (United Kingdom) 7; Kjell R. Utne (Norway) 4; Elisabeth Ytteborg (Norway) 10; Matteo Zuccheta (Italy) 9; Michaela Aschan (Norway) 11; Daniele Brigolin (Italy) 9; Lynne Falconer (United Kingdom) 7; Bärbel Muller-Karullis (Sweden) 12; Raul Primicero (Norway) 11; Aslak Smalås (Norway) 11; Orestis Stavrakidis (Greece) 6,8,12; Astrid Sturm (Germany) 13,14; Franz Wätzold (Germany) 13

1 - CSIC Instituto de Investigaciones Marinas, Vigo, Spain; 2 - University of Aberdeen, The School of Biological Sciences, Aberdeen, Scotland, UK; 3 - Research Institute for Fisheries and Aquaculture (HAKI), Szarvas, Hungary; 4 - Institute of Marine Research, Bergen, Norway; 5 - Institute of Hydrobiology, Biology Centre CAS, České Budějovice, Czechia; 6 - University of Crete, Heraklion, Greece; 7 - University of Stirling, Stirling, Scotland, UK; 8 - HCMR Institute of Aquaculture, Gournes, Heraklion, Greece; 9 - University of Venice, Venice, Italy; 10 - NOFIMA Norwegian Institute of Food, Fisheries and Aquaculture Research, Ås, Norway; 11 - The Arctic University of Norway; 12 - Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden; 13 - Brandenburg University of Technology Cottbus-Senftenberg, Cottbus, Germany; 14 - Institute of Computer Science, Freie Universität Berlin, Berlin, Germany

ClimeFish is an on-going H2020 project committed to the study of the impacts of climate change on freshwater and marine fisheries and aquaculture across Europe. Regional climate models (RCM) feed biological models to forecast the biomass/production and distribution patterns of the target species studied by ClimeFish under the expected climate conditions in Europe by year 2050. This presentation focuses on the seven case studies for which risks and opportunities were identified, allowing the development of strategies to mitigate risks and utilize opportunities.

These set of case studies include the pelagic fisheries of the Northeast Atlantic, the demersal fisheries of Northwest Scotland, the freshwater fishery of Lake Garda (Italy), the freshwater aquaculture of Hungarian ponds, the NE Atlantic salmon aquaculture, the Greek sea bass aquaculture and the NW Iberian shellfish aquaculture. Two IPPC scenarios, RCP 4.5 and 8.5, are forecasted at the short (year 2020), medium (year 2030) and long (year 2050) time-scales. Comparable RCM have been used to feed the biological models for the freshwater and marine case studies.

Biological models range for individual-based models (IBM) up-scaled to the population level for the aquaculture case studies, through Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE) representations of the food web for NW Scotland demersal fisheries, to an end-to-end model where physical, biogeochemical and biological components are dynamically coupled (NORWECOM.E2E) for the Northeast Atlantic fisheries. The outputs of the biological models are used to identify the main risks and opportunities associate to climate change for the seven case studies from now to 2050, providing an overall view of the future of fisheries and aquaculture in a Europe under climate change.