Lizaveta Troshka (United Kingdom) 1
1 - AECOM
Over the past decade, there has been an increasing interest among different stakeholders in various sectors to get a better understanding of the potential impacts of climate change and intensifying extreme weather events. UK climate projections (UKCP09 and soon to be released UKCP18) provide a world-leading and unique opportunity to integrate modern climate science into operational processes and procedures, such as risk assessments to evaluate the scale, likelihood and timescales of potential impacts. This poster will explore and provide details of how to design, run and analyse effective qualitative and quantitative climate change risk assessments utilising geospatial climate data and downscaling it to an asset, function or operational level to ensure future resilience. It will take account of different emission scenarios, seasonality and uncertainties associated with climate science.
The presentation will highlight the following:
- Information and data to collect for a quantitative and qualitative climate change risk assessment;
- Climate change projections and how to incorporate them into the risk assessment process. This will include further detail on available application tools, such as the UKCP09 Weather Generator and Threshold Detector, and will explain climate data uncertainty and how to approach it;
- Use of GIS software to downscale and synthesise available climate change data to run a representative risk assessment and generate meaningful outputs;
- Creation of climate change risk databases for risk prioritisation;
- Development of adaptation measures in response to identified risks, including the economic screening and evaluation of adaptation options.
The approach provides an opportunity for any organisation to visualise the degree of climate change risks in GIS format, which is particularly useful for non-technical audiences with limited knowledge of climate change science to understand the urgency of action needed.
In addition, running a climate change risk assessment based on the method allows for identifying and introducing climate change adaptation measures effectively and robustly, through making informed investment decisions related to the monitoring, recording and evaluating acute and chronic weather impacts on an organisation. This ultimately helps to ensure the viability and profitability of an organisation and enables quick wins to be identified, alongside suitable longer-term resilience measures.
Real project examples will be included in the presentation to illustrate proven interventions, the effectiveness of the approach, and to illustrate the results of the assessments currently used by organisations in the UK when dealing with the already tangible impacts of climate change.