Developing a blueprint for future climate services for the transport sector

14:00 Wednesday 29 May

SS024 • OC143

Room S7

 

David Jaroszweski (United Kingdom) 1

1 - University of Birmingham

Reliable and resilient transport systems are crucial for sustaining national productivity and competitiveness. The complex nature of transport systems with their many different components, interdependencies and critical locations poses a uniquely challenging environment for the infrastructure mangers and climate service providers. The changing nature of transport including the growth in electrification and automation in vehicles will also shift the weather-related vulnerabilities in the system over the course of the coming decades. This paper describes the ongoing formulation of a blueprint for the next generation of climate services for the transport sector, which can be used to make targeted multimodal adaptation decisions.

This approach is being developed in the case study region of the UK Midlands,the heart of the UK’s strategic road and rail network. The paper will detail the efforts to understand i) the vulnerabilities of transport assets to weather, including analysis of transport failure data and interviews with transport practitioners ii) how failure of these assets leads to disruption and how the weather-related ïnetwork criticality’ varies spatially and temporally iii) how the Meteorological Office’s forthcoming UKCP18 projections can be be used for asset-specific projections iv) consideration of how foreseen changes in the transport system (such as the introduction of new technologies) will change the vulnerability of the system and introduce new requirements for climate services v) the creation and planned trial of a multimodal decision-making framework for the prioritisation of adaptation actions. This work is funded through the Natural Environment Research Council’s National Productivity Investment Fund Programme.