Decadal-to-climate change in the RESCCUE project: Extreme scenarios from downscaled CMIP5 multi-model ensemble

11:15 Tuesday 28 May

OC003

Room S8

 

Emma Gaitán (Spain) 1; César Paradinas (Spain) 1; Javier Pórtoles (Spain) 1; Darío Redolat (Spain) 1; Robert Monjo (Spain) 1; Carlos Prado (Spain) 1; Luis Torres (Spain) 1; Jaime Ribalaygua (Spain) 1

1 - Climate Research Foundation

The definition of extreme event assumes a low occurrence probability, and this is usually combined with potential high-impacts over the studied area. The present study is based on results from the climate extreme events simulated in the European project named RESilience to cope with Climate Change in Urban arEas (RESCCUE).

RESCCUE project aims to improve urban resilience of three pilot cases, Barcelona, Lisbon and Bristol, through an assessment of climate change impacts in several sectors. In this study, future local climate projections and decadal predictions have been obtained for the three cities from a multi-model generated at local scale. For this purpose, a two-step statistical downscaling method was applied to ten CMIP5 model outputs to simulate several climate drivers, focusing on extreme subdaily precipitation. Synthetic extreme events were defined for low and high return periods fitting several theoretical distributions: 2, 3 and 4-parametric versions of Gamma, Weibull, Gumbel and Monjo distributions. Regarding the results, significant increases in extreme values of maximum temperature and subdaily precipitation are expected in the three cities. Finally, extreme wave height and storm surge would decrease for some cases.