Co-development of a knowledge portal to utilize uncertain multi-model based information on freshwater-related hazards of climate change

19:00 Tuesday 28 May




Carina Zang (Germany) 3; Dirk Schwanenberg (Germany) 1; Fabian Kneier (Germany) 2; Stephan Dietrich (Germany) 3; Harald Koethe (Germany) 3; Petra Doell (Germany) 2

1 - Kisters AG; 2 - Institute of Physical Geography, Hydrology Group, Goethe University Frankfurt; 3 - International Centre for Water Resources and Global Change, Federal Institute of Hydrology, Koblenz

Whilst decision-makers in climate-dependent sectors are increasingly taking into account climate change (CC) in their risk portfolios, there is a structural lack of appropriate, tailored climate services including useable information and tools. No studies have yet been performed on

  1. how to represent uncertainty quantitatively in a way that is both scientifically correct and meaningful to the diverse users of the hazard information and
  2. how to integrate information with quantified uncertainty into basin-to-regional-scale assessments of water-related CC risks and adaptation measures in a participatory manner.

In the ERA4CS CO-MICC project, a knowledge platform including a data portal will be co-developed together with stakeholders based on global-scale multi-model ensemble information of hydrological variables and derived products. This web portal will enable end-users from around the world to access this information for their region of interest for free and to consider uncertainty as well as spatial and temporal aggregation. We will complement the visualization tools by appropriate meta-information, tutorials and documentation. Specific focus will be on the meaning of the presented data (indicators and uncertainties) as well as on the use of the web platform and on hazards related to freshwater systems in general. In this way, project results will reach a broad range of stakeholders, including policy makers, practitioners and NGOs, the private sector, the research community, and the public in general.

We will design and implement appropriate end-user products with stakeholders, encompass dynamically generated or static information, and include interactive maps, diagrams, time series graphs, and suitable statistics, with expedient visualization of uncertainty. Stakeholder requirements will be structured and documented in use cases that support the specification and design of the information system. This ensures that simulation results and derived products comply with user and international requirements and are properly exchangeable through web services.

Regarding project impacts, the data available at the web portal enables a global assessment of fresh-water related CC hazards. CC risk management requires the full information on uncertainty of projections assessed by the hydrological modelling approach, even at sites where hydrological models may already be available at basin scale. Finally, the project will produce new knowledge about the optimal design of co-development processes and enable social learning and capacity building.