Elodie Briche (France) 1; Ghislain Dubois (France) 1; Matías Gonzá lez Herná ndez (Spain) 2; Carmen García Galindo (Spain) 2; Yen E. Lam (Spain) 2; Piero Lionello (Italy) 3; Valentina Bacciu (Italy) 3; Ulrike Lehr (Germany) 4
1 - TEC Conseil; 2 - Universidad de Las Palmas de Gran Canaria (ULPGC); 3 - Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC); 4 - Gesellschaft für Wirtschaftliche Strukturforschung mbH (GWS)
Impact chains are used to synthetize in a diagram tool the complex relationships between the components of risk in the AR5 report (IPCC, 2014): hazard and direct physical impacts, exposure and vulnerability. This work describes the methodology undertaken by a European H2020 project (Soclimpact) to define and operationalise complex impact chains, able of articulating climate projections, Climate Change risk assessment, socio-economic impacts, and scenarios building in 4 priority sectors of the Blue Economy (maritime and coastal tourism, aquaculture, marine energy and maritime transport) in 12 islands of the EU. A first stage of theoretical impact chains definition was carried out, based on the GIZ methodology (GIZ, 2017).
The matrix was designed in a way that it can be operationalised during all phases of modelling. Indeed, a set of indicators along the theoretical impact chains allow the operationalization and the quantitative assessment of changes in the climate characteristics (CCI), changes in the ecosystem services (ESI), and changes in the Blue Economy activities and in the whole economy of European islands (EVI). Main potential risks of climate change were also ranked by degree of importance. Using a stakeholders’ consultation in each island and a human-centered process, priority sectors and risks were defined per each region. Cross learning among islands was another added value in the operationalization process of the impact chains.
Quality control and management of the data flow between climate change, impacts and economic models are explained, and the interrelations among the modelling chains are discussed around the methodological framework.
The authors fully acknowledge financial support for this study from the Horizon 2020 programme – funding the project Soclimpact DownScaling CLImate imPACTs and decarbonisation pathways in EU islands and enhancing socioeconomic and non-market evaluation of Climate Change for Europe, for 2050 and beyond.