Frank Dentener (Italy) 1; Andrea Toreti (Italy) 1; Maurits Van Den Berg (Italy) 1; Iacopo Cerrani (Italy) 1; Andrej Ceglar (Italy) 1; Alessandro Dosio (Italy) 1; Davide Fumagalli (Italy) 1; Stefano Galmarini (Italy) 1; Remi Lecerf (Italy) 1; Stefano Niemeyer (Italy) 1; Lorenzo Panarello (Italy) 1; Marijn Van Der Velde (Italy) 1; Matteo Zampieri (Italy) 1
1 - European Commission, Joint Research Center
The European Commission’s Joint Research Centre provides operational seasonal forecasts of crop yields for a number of key-crops. European Union Member States, the international Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS), farm advisory services are among users of the results. On European level, it is becoming increasingly important to assess the vulnerability of crop production under climate change conditions, as well as to evaluate adaptation options. We use the operational modelling toolkit to evaluate climate impacts and adaptation options for 6 crops and 10 different bias-corrected climate models at a resolution of about 11 km and a focus on the period around 2050. We discuss the uncertainties of our results in the context of key-assumptions on soils and hydrology, the phenological calibration of crops, and the effects of CO2. In 2018 exceptionally dry conditions in Northern Europe led to low production in Central and Northern Europe and higher than usual in Southern Europe. We discuss the probability of similar exceptional conditions under future climate change, and to which extent adaptation guided by climate information could help avoiding production swings.