Diogo Alagador (Portugal) 1; Jorge Orestes Cerdeira (Portugal) 2; Miguel Bastos Araujo (Spain) 3
1 - Research Center on Biodiversity and Genetic Resources, Universidade de évora; 2 - Department of Mathematics, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia, Universidade NOVA de Lisboa; 3 - Museo Nacional de Ciencias Naturales, Consejo Superior de Investigacíones Científicas, CSIC, Madrid
Human wellbeing relies on healthy conditions of communities and their constituting species. The presently severe climate changes bring extensive stress to biodiversity, leading species, among other responses, to spatial rearrangements to follow suitable climate turn-overs. The dynamics predicted for short-term future, will make some areas critical for supporting the persistence of a single species, and other areas key for the persistence of multiple species. These define two types of time-varying hubs are conservation priorities that need to be set aside from local scale threatening factors. Here, we introduce a framework to identify plausible adaptive routes for species and apply it to the case of Europe, particularly concerning a set of thirty threatened mammal species.
Using bioclimatic niche and dispersal models we outline ‘promising persistence’ routes for each species and we identify the hubs likely to sustain their adaptation to four climate change scenarios. We investigate whether those adaptive routes and hubs are well covered by the two networks of established protected areas and the extent that five types of land uses conflict with species persistence from present-time up to 2080.
The persistence associated to the ‘best’ routes ranges widely among species (two orders of magnitude). While covering 30% of Natura-2000 sites, persistence routes do only sustain >10% of total persistence of eight species and only two species presented >10% persistence in routes covered by protected areas. The whole promising route-set for the thirty species covers 35% of European croplands and only 15% of grasslands.
We trust that, by extending this type of studies, policy-makers are offered with optimal strategies that permit reconciling biodiversity conservation with human development such that both sectors gain from collaborative opportunities and possibly win-win opportunities are explored.