Alexandra Jurgilevich (Finland) 1; Aleksi Räsänen (Finland) 1; Sirkku Juhola (Finland) 1
1 - University of Helsinki
Non-climatic factors, especially exposure and vulnerability, are major components of future climate risk. However, there is a gap in understanding what drives future vulnerability and exposure, as well as how to account for their spatial pattern in the future. We have developed a qualitative participatory methodology, which (1) identifies internal and external drivers of socioeconomic development and land use change, (2) uses local socioeconomic scenarios to evaluate different future pathways, and (3) utilizes participatory GIS to visualize changes in vulnerability and exposure determinants spatially. The methodology has been tested in the City of Helsinki in sketching potential future pathways until 2050. Analysis of drivers and scenarios demonstrates connections between the drivers and changes in vulnerability indicators, while maps developed in a stakeholder workshop visualize these changes spatially. Our approach:
- connects indicators, drivers, adaptation/planning needs and scenario analysis,
- provides deeper understanding of the processes influencing future vulnerability, and
- gives insights for urban adaptation and other sectors of urban planning.
Finally, we discuss benefits and weaknesses of the developed participatory methodology and explore issues identified for further research and improvement.