A climate change Impact assessment framework based on outcome indicator: values estimation focusing on the citizens’ quality of life

19:00 Tuesday 28 May




Takuya Togawa (Japan) 1; Hiroyoshi Morita (Japan) 2; Estoque Ronald C. (Japan) 1; Makoto Ooba (Japan) 1; Takashi Tsuji (Japan) 1; Akira Yoshioka (Japan) 1; Kei Gomi (Japan) 1; Keisuke Kuroda (Japan) 1; Shogo Nakamura (Japan) 1; Noriyasu Kachi (Japan) 3

1 - National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan; 2 - Nippon Engineering Consultants; 3 - Toyo University

In the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the impact of climate change will become more serious in the future. And even if the increase in temperature after the industrial revolution could be stabilized at around 2°C at the end of this century, damage increase is inevitable across sectors. Therefore, adaptation planning is urgent to prepare for the expected adverse effects. In November 2015, the Japanese cabinet approved the “adaptation plan for the impact of climate change”.

The impacts of climate change and variability, e.g. increase in temperature, changes in precipitation pattern, sea level rise, increase in the frequency of extreme climate-related events, etc., can affect both the natural environment and human society. Consequently, it can affect not only various industries and economic activities, but also the people’s living environment and their own lives. Until now, the impacts of climate change and variability and the needed various adaptation options tend to be evaluated in parallel across sectors. However, there is still no structural evaluation framework that could consider outcomes of climate-related impacts and adaptation measures from the viewpoints of citizens.

In this research, we review various indexes that measure people’s quality of life and identify the indicators and elements of QOL that are suitable for adaptation planning and policy evaluation at the local government level in Japan. We examine how the impacts of climate change and variability, as well as the implementation of various adaptation measures, relate to QOL and its elements with the use of an impact chain analysis approach. This process enables the identification of indicators of QOL that are relevant in the context of climate-related impacts and adaptation measures.

To achieve all of these, we conduct a nationwide questionnaire survey with about 2000 samples. Based on the survey data, we conduct an integrated analysis and estimated the weights for each individual attribute, e.g. age, gender, income, residence location, etc. Based on the results, we assess the current situation nationwide by municipalities and clarify the spatial distribution of impacts to QOL due to climate change and variability. Overall, in this research we developed an evaluation framework that could capture potential outcomes of climate-related impacts and adaptation policies from the perspectives of the citizens – the beneficiaries, and not based on the variations of potential economic damage.